There is no doubt that the idea of probability was close to the idea of truth at the early stage [16th century]—etymologically, “probable” is “provable”, and even today, “probity” means utter reliability—and the emerging notion of something having positive probability had to be disentangled from the different notion of appearing credible. This fascinating story has been closely studied in recent years, especially by Ian Hacking and Lorraine Daston, and I have nothing to add to their work.
Keywords: etymology, mathematics, logic, philosophy, Latin
 Chandler David: The Role of the Untrue in Mathematics. The Mathematical Intelligencer Summer 2009, Volume 31, Number 3, pp. 4-8.